Toronto Maple Leafs: The 2 Keys That Will Determine Playoff Fate

With a 7-4-4 record in their past 15 games, the playoff conversation is heating up for the Toronto Maple Leafs, but what factors will decide their destiny?

If someone told you before the season that the Toronto Maple Leafs would be three points out of a playoff spot on December 29th with three games in hand on the team they were chasing, there would have been many eyebrows raised. However, with only four regulation losses in their past 15 games and four wins in their last five, the Leafs are making a serious push for the playoffs.

Granted Toronto beat up on the struggling Arizona Coyotes and Colorado Avalanche, but they have also delivered strong performances against top teams along the way. What’s most impressive about this run by the Leafs is how they are winning these games and where they are getting their contributions from.

Auston Matthews leads the team in scoring with 30 points, including 18 goals in 35 games. Mitch Marner is right behind him, with 26 points in the same number of games.

It also helps that James van Riemsdyk has kept pace with the young rookies, adding 13 goals and 24 points. However, while the Leafs are getting quality scoring from many players, it is the form of Frederik Andersen that has put them over the top.

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After a sluggish October, where Andersen had a .876 save percentage and a 3.67 GAA in seven games, he has definitely put his struggles behind him.

In 22 games during November and December, Andersen has a 13-6-3 record with a .942 save percentage and a 2.13 GAA. To put his numbers in perspective, compared him with Devan Dubnyk (13-5-2, 1.64 GAA, .956 save percentage), Carey Price (13-5-2, 2.08 GAA, .923 save percentage) and Sergei Bobrovsky (19-2-1, 1.87 GAA, .933 save percentage), who are all Vezina trophy candidates.

If Andersen can continue to provide stability in net, the Leafs definitely have a strong chance at making the playoffs. Where they will need to improve on is in one-goal games.

In the past 15 games, the team have been in eight one-goal games and lost on six occasions, including four in the shootout. In those eight games, the Leafs have out-shot their opponent five times, so they have not been outplayed – they are just not getting the bounces or the timely goals in their favour.

If Andersen is able to hold the fort, the Leafs will need two other things to go their way, to have any chance of making the playoffs. One is for their backup goalie to win some games, because all 15 up to this point have come from Andersen.

After the back-to-back in Florida, the Leafs have 10 games on back-to-back nights and they will likely try to play the backup goaltender on those occasions. Right now the Leafs will roll with Antoine Bibeau as the backup goalie, because of the poor play from Jhonas Enroth.

Dec 13, 2016; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs goalie Frederik Andersen (31) during their game against the San Jose Sharks at Air Canada Centre. The Sharks beat the Maple Leafs 3-2 in the shootout. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports /

It would be nice if Bibeau can find a way to win half of the back-to-back games, because that would be 10 out of a possible 20 points. That could ultimately be what either gets the Leafs into the playoffs or what has them on the outside looking in.

The other thing that needs to go the Leafs way, is having the rookies maintaining their strong play down the stretch. Not only are Matthews and Marner leading the team in scoring, but they are also positive possession players.

Matthews is the top possession forward on the Leafs, which is pretty good for a player in his first NHL season. Marner is not among the Leafs top possession players but he leads the team in assists and is second in average ice time among forwards, behind Matthews.

The Leafs will certainly have to rely on Matthews and Marner to continue to produce offensively, while hoping that veterans like JVR, Nazem Kadri, and Tyler Bozak can chip in as well. William Nylander will also have to continue leading the way on the powerplay, where he is first for Toronto in goals and assists.

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It will be tough to expect the Leafs to make moves at the trade deadline, but if there are two, they might consider going for a backup goalie and help on the blueline. It is no secret they could not trust Enroth with the backup role and will give Bibeau a chance, but how long will they remain patient if he struggles?

If Bibeau does not work out, there are not many options available with the Toronto Marlies, other than Garret Sparks and Karri Ramo, who is still working his way back to game shape. This is also a dangerous territory for the Leafs, because there are not many teams looking to move goalies and they are in no position to overpay for one.

The discussion on trading for a defencemen is not a new one for the Leafs and that is because the blueline does need an upgrade. It certainly has been good enough to this juncture, but at some point they will need to figure out options to improve it.

Andrew Nielsen, Travis Dermott and Rinat Valiev are not ready for the NHL yet and there is no reason to rush their development. What the team could look into is a player with term on his contract or a prospect that could play in the NHL but is stuck in a numbers game.

Unfortunately Frank Corrado is not getting an opportunity and the team could use an upgrade over Matt Hunwick and Roman Polak.

Next: Leafs' top 10 prospect rankings

As James Mirtle wrote in his latest article for the Athletic, the team has a strong chance to make the playoffs. What it will come down to, is how well they can continue to play and how the other teams in the Atlantic division perform.

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