Toronto Raptors: The Awkward Fit of Jared Sullinger

Now the Toronto Raptors have acquired Jared Sullinger, his fit with the rest of the roster will be brought into question and rightfully so, because it isn’t going to be a smooth transition.

Many fans have claimed that the Toronto Raptors have been too complacent during this year’s offseason, but Masai Ujiiri’s patience has finally paid off. The Raptors signed Jared Sullinger to a one-year flyer at the mid-level exception, after the Boston Celtics rescinded their qualifying offer sheet.

Now the Raptors have acquired Sullinger, his fit with the rest of the roster will be brought into question and rightfully so, because it isn’t going to be a smooth transition. Dwane Casey is a defense first coach and when he takes a look at Sullinger within the team concept he’s going to recognize some large issues.

The major reason the Celtics rescinded their qualifying offer wasn’t because of lack of talent or cap space, it was due to Sullinger’s lack of conditioning and weight issues compromising his ability to play at the highest level. They have tried to get him down to at least 265 pounds and Sullinger has continued to hover around the 300 pound mark.

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This not only provides an injury risk by putting stress on the back he had injured years ago, but it’s also a detriment to his defense. It’s hard to determine where Sullinger will fit in the Raptors rotation due to his defensive woes.

Although it may appear to the naked eye that Sullinger is a plus defender, being part of a top five defense in the league this year, he is a beneficiary of having amazing defenders surrounding him. In the starting lineup he was the centre supplemented by Amir Johnson, Avery Bradley and Jae Crowder, all of which are stellar defensive players that could cover for his mistakes.

In many instances it’s clear he has flaws on defense that will prove detrimental to his team. His lateral quickness suffers due to his weight and stamina problems, with the extra pounds making it impossible to stay in front of athletic power forwards.

The face up is Sullinger’s kryptonite. He gets beat too easily off a couple of dribbles. Here in a far too common instance, Al Horford doesn’t do anything special, a couple of head fakes into a dribble drive is enough to get by Sullinger. It leads to an easy finish on the other side of the rim to protect himself and the ball from the defender. Plus, Sullinger lacks the height, explosion and length to contest the shot.

In the starting lineup of the Raptors this type of defense is unacceptable, because while the majority of the East doesn’t have post up bigs, the best teams do. The Celtics, Hawks, and Cavs all have post threats that will mercilessly exploit this weakness in Sullinger’s defense and essentially play him off the floor.

If he comes off the bench, that brings in a new series of weaknesses. Bench units are less apt to run a structured offense and usually devolve into pick-and-roll sets where Sullinger proves to be -weary in defending. That lack of foot speed is even more evident in pick-and-roll situations.

He has to sit back on screen-and-rolls, which allows for penetration by the ball handler. Kyle Lowry is a cagey defender, but by no means a stalwart. There will be situations where he gets picked off and Sullinger will need to fend for himself. He lacks the speed to attack the pick-and-roll so he lets Reggie Jackson wander into open space for a floater that wasn’t even contested, and he got fouled by Thomas below him. You cannot Challenge NBA point guards to shoot open floaters every time down the floor, that’s a layup for them.

Sully’s lead feet tend to really hurt him in transition defense too. Whenever he gets back on defense he plods – he never seems to be in a hurry, leading to advantageous situations for the offense.

Closeouts are also a problem for Sullinger. Most big men hang outside the paint now and behind the arc is their new hotspot. Most offenses are designed to suck the defense in during penetration and kick the ball out to open shooters. To counter this defenses shrink down to the paint and spring out to the shooters, closing out air space.

Sullinger can’t do this effectively so the Celtics had to turn him into their starting centre, pairing him with Johnson, who could chase around more athletic players. That’s fine and dandy as part of the Celtics because they don’t have a true centre, but the Raptors do. Jonas Valanciunas, Jakob Poetl and Lucas Nogueira are all true centres on the Raptors and the latter two are going to be vying contentiously for minutes.

Since Sullinger can’t hold down the power forward position because of his weight and speed, he’s going to be joining that fray of unproven centres.

Sullinger’s defensive rating was a stellar 100, but he was surrounded by exceptional perimeter defenders in Boston. The defense was designed to steal, averaging a league second best 9.2 steals, hawking passing lanes and strip loose ball handlers was the forte of Avery Bradley and the gang.

People rarely took shots at the rim, because it was particularly hard to even get there. Now that Sullinger doesn’t have the pieces surrounding him, he really needs to prove himself as a back up centre.

The Raptors lack shooting at the big positions outside of Patrick Patterson and Valanciunas’ seldom used mid-range. With his height limitations at the centre position, Sullinger is going to have to bring something else to the table to help the team.

Where Sullinger stands out from the rest of the centres on the Raptors roster is offense. The Raps are a screen-and-roll team and this is where he should fit like a glove.

Sullinger uses his huge body to set excellent screens leading into his good mid-range stroke, which was the primary reason he averaged 10 points per game last season. The penetration and space created by Isaiah Thomas is very much akin to Lowry.

He hits shots between 16 feet and the three-point line at 42 percent. The issue with these shots are that they aren’t threes. Brad Stevens is an excellent coach, his eyes basically have built-in Ki scanners and it looked like he was reducing Sully’s attempts, because of his inability to hit the threes on a consistent basis. Last year and the year before, Sullinger shot 28 percent from range, which is the best he’s ever shot from distance, but is Josh Smith‘s career average… That’s bad.

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Sullinger likes to take a lot of one-foot inside the line twos, which is infuriating for anyone who watches him play, but it seems like the only way to get him to hit his jumper. He simply cannot take that extra step out to even attempt the three and his attempts drastically decreased last year to 1.3 attempts from 3.2 the year before.

Sullinger’s form is exactly the same shot, it’s just less accurate. He did shoot most of those threes from the wing last year, which is the hardest three to hit due to angle and distance, so we may see Dwane Casey park him in the corner.

Corner threes are a shorter distance from the rim and are generally more open than any other three, because of how offenses tend to contour the defense. Sullinger could see that three-point percentage climb in the corner, but if they do keep him in the corner, they could be cutting off one of his biggest strengths — his passing.

That mid-range game around the top of the key has become a nexus for Sully’s passing. He only averages 2.3 per game, but it’s not because he lacks vision, it’s actually because the Celtics lack finishers at the rim

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Sullinger’s an adept bounce passer, which allows him to hit a lot of back door cutters and could prove useful with him at the high post, allowing Lowry and DeMar DeRozan to run around him creating creases he could exploit. If those finishers do continue to miss, he has got them covered.

Sullinger averaged 8.3 rebounds in only 23 minutes last season, which is comparable to Bismack Biyombo‘s eight in 22. He is a positional rebounder in contrast to Biyombo’s athletic above the rim style of rebounding.

Sullinger creates so much space by just being underneath the rim that he creates a large advantage for him and his teammates. His weight makes him nearly immovable, allowing him to retrieve caroms off the rim relatively easily when they fall into his vicinity.

A question that will arise is whether or not Sullinger can maintain this rebounding advantage if he loses weight and improves his conditioning. That’s something that can only be answered by his play and his play only.

Sullinger may need to find a middle path of weight that allows him to be viable as a power forward, but also maintain his rebounding advantage. If he can’t lose enough weight to become mobile enough to play power forward effectively, don’t be surprised if he finds his shorts stapled to the bench by the middle of the regular season.

Next: Raptors Officially Sign Jakob Poeltl and Pascal Siakam

Sullinger’s going to have to seriously prove his worth from range, or play some stellar defense at the 5, or the Raptors might just form a rotation that doesn’t include Sullinger. There are too many options at the center position that coach Casey can turn to, that doesn’t compromise his defensive scheme and if he can’t keep up with power forwards why play him?

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