Toronto Blue Jays need to retool or rebuild for the future
The Toronto Blue Jays, sitting at 35-38, are three and a half games out of a playoff spot. This does not look so bad in isolation, except they would have to pass seven teams in order to get the second Wild Card position.
There is no mistaking it – the Toronto Blue Jays of 2017 have not been good. They have a -27 run differential overall. They are 12-8 in one run games and 5-11 in blow outs.
They are 29-21 in their last 50 games, but have been outscored over that period by one run, going 9-1 in one-run games during that stretch, which indicates a fair amount of luck.
By every metric one can possibly look at, the team has been every bit as good as their record indicates. Maybe even a bit lucky, which is not a good sign for fans who want to see a third straight trip to the post-season.
It is not entirely the fault of the talent. The Blue Jays have suffered significant injuries to key players, on top of underachieving by others who were expected to be a lot better (Jose Bautista, Troy Tulowitzki, among others).
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In that sense, it is somewhat remarkable they are even as good as they are. However, at the end of the day all that matters is your record and where you are in the standings. Right now, the Jays have a decision to make, and it looks obvious.
The team is old, poor defensively, and not good offensively. They have been carried by a surprisingly good bullpen.
Team president Mark Shapiro and general manager Ross Atkins have mentioned in the past about getting younger and more athletic, but the only way to do that in baseball is to incorporate prospects into the big league pipeline. Getting younger and faster in free agency is not always realistic.
So the Blue Jays, faced with the impending free agency of star third baseman Josh Donaldson after the 2018 season, have to decide whether to make improvements to the current roster in an attempt to win this season, or retool/rebuild for seasons ahead.
That seems like a straight forward decision. There does not appear to be a big league prospect ready to take over in 2018 anywhere on the field, especially with injuries to Anthony Alford and Dalton Pompey stunting their development time this season.
The team will lose two starting pitchers after this season, Marco Estrada and Francisco Liriano, with only one arm available to replace them (Joe Biagini). There are no pitching prospects ready to take a rotation spot in 2018, either.
Glenn Sparkman, Rule 5 pick-up who has missed all of 2017 so far due to injuries, is a bit of a wild card as a 2018 rotation option. However, the team will not know what they have, unless they give him big league innings.
Making matters more complicated, the Blue Jays will have to give expensive arbitration raises to Donaldson, Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez, Roberto Osuna, Devon Travis and Kevin Pillar. How much will the payroll go up in 2018 to accommodate those raises and give the team enough wiggle room to add more talent?
Rogers ownership may not be ready to accept a full rebuild, especially with the team currently leading the American League in attendance, so that leaves retooling as the only real option. That means taking the impending free agents (Estrada, Liriano, Bautista, Joe Smith) and trying to turn them into long-term pieces for the future at the trade deadline, rather than finding pieces to help the team luck into a playoff spot.
It is a tough pill to swallow, as the success of the last two seasons felt like a blur, and clearly did not last long enough for fans to enjoy, but this was inevitable after the 2015 trades. When an organization “goes for it” for one season, some times that is all they ever get.
Luckily the Jays got two post-seasons out of it, but now will have to think long-term to clean up the previous regime’s short-term mindset. The window, if it has not closed already, is almost shut.
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What do you think the Blue Jays should do at the trade deadline? Would you just retool the roster, or start on the path to a total rebuild? Share your thoughts in the comments section.