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Toronto Blue Jays: Could Remainder of April Determine Fate?

By Paul Taylor

Apr 16, 2017; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher J.A. Happ (33) talks to catcher Russell Martin (55) and shortstop Troy Tulowitzki (2) as he prepares to leave the game against Baltimore Orioles due to an injury in the fifth inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 16, 2017; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher J.A. Happ (33) talks to catcher Russell Martin (55) and shortstop Troy Tulowitzki (2) as he prepares to leave the game against Baltimore Orioles due to an injury in the fifth inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports /
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While a sub-.400 record entering May wouldn’t seal the fate of the Toronto Blue Jays, history tells us they would be extremely unlikely to make the playoffs.

Asking if the Toronto Blue Jays‘ fate will be decided by the end of April is — theoretically at least — a ridiculous question. After all, they will still have 137 games remaining.

However, a look back through recent history suggests posing the question actually isn’t that outlandish. Let’s go back to the start of the wild card era in professional baseball, which technically began in 1994 (which as we know, ended early due to the strike).

In that respect, the following season started later than usual, due to that same strike. As such, we’ll start our look into baseball history with the 1996 campaign.

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Next, we’re going to use Bleacher Report‘s excellent 2013 article by Zachary D. Rymer as a basis. As such, we’ll consider teams who entered May with a record under .400.

Along those lines, our research found that between 1996 and last season, 115 teams entered May with a sub -.400 record. Now comes the most important part – how many of those teams went on to qualify for a playoff spot? *Drum roll!*

In total, only eight teams, which works out at just under seven percent. Here is the list of those teams:

  • 2001. Athletics. AL Wild Card
  • 2006. Twins. AL Central Champs
  • 2006. Padres. NL West Champs
  • 2007. Yankees. AL Wild Card
  • 2007. Rockies. NL Wild Card
  • 2010. Braves. NL Wild Card
  • 2014. Pirates. NL Wild Card
  • 2015. Rangers. AL West Champs.

So what does this tell us? The main thing is that while it’s not impossible, your chances of making the postseason with a sub -.400 record entering May are still extremely unlikely.

If there is any way to spin this positively, the majority of the teams that did recover, have done it more recently. After just one team cane back to qualify between 1996-2005, seven have succeeded during the last 11 seasons.

From the Blue Jays’ perspective, they enter Monday’s action with a record of 5-13, which works out to .278 winning percentage. With seven games remaining in April, they need to go 5-2 to reach .400.

Overall, no matter how you want to break it down, this all puts a huge spanner in the works when experts say it’s too early to count anyone out at such an early stage of the season. Historically speaking, this is the case for just over 93 percent of teams with a sub-.400 record entering May.

Blue Jays fans can consider themselves warned. Here’s hoping the team gets on a roll between now and the end of April.

Next: Justin Smoak Lights a Flame

Obviously, the Blue Jays’ start to the season hasn’t gone how anyone expected. Regardless, given the undoubted talent on the team, how optimistic are you about their chances to turn things around and qualify for the postseason? Share your thoughts in the comments section.

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