Using Platoons Does Not Make Sense for the Toronto Blue Jays
The Toronto Blue Jays might be hurting themselves by going with the rumored platoons at first base and left field in 2017.
As Spring Training draws near, the roster for the Toronto Blue Jays appears to be close to set. Manager John Gibbons has often suggested that platoons will be used in two spots in the lineup.
The current setup against right-handed pitching appears to be Justin Smoak at first base and Ezequiel Carrera in left field. Both hit from the left side (one being a switch hitter), while their counterparts Steve Pearce and Melvin Upton Jr., hit from the right, so conventional wisdom appears to favor those platoons.
The problem is, the numbers tell a different story.
Firstly, Pearce is not a ‘platoon utility player’, regardless of what is being said about him. He hits right-handed pitching well enough to start everyday against them in addition to his ability to mash lefties. He also plays above average defense at first base, far better than any other position he can play.
Here are Pearce’s numbers against RHP and LHP since the start of the 2014 season:
Vs RHP: 125 wRC+, .810 OPS, 9.1% BB%, 21.0% K%, .204 ISO in 680 plate appearances
Vs LHP: 145 wRC+, .902 OPS, 10.6 BB%, 17.0% K%, .274 ISO in 330 plate appearances
As shown above, his plate appearances against RHP since his breakout 2014 season have actually been double that of his plate appearances against LHP. His wRC+ of 125 over that span, and 118 against RHP in 2016, are very solid numbers for an everyday player.
More importantly, here are Smoak’s numbers against RHP and LHP since the start of the 2014 season:
Vs RHP: 97 wRC+, .717 OPS, 11.0 BB%, 30.1% K%, .200 ISO in 694 plate appearances
Vs LHP: 82 wRC+, .657 OPS, 6.8% BB%, 21.9% K%, .155 ISO in 251 plate appearances
From an offensive standpoint, a platoon of Smoak against RHP and Pearce against LHP does not make any sense. Pearce is significantly better against both sides of the plate and might end up being one of the better options on the team against RHP overall.
On the defensive end, it is the same story. Pearce has a career 12 DRS and 8.9 UZR at first base, while Smoak has a career -16 DRS and 0.6 UZR. One is above average, and the other well below.
More from Tip of the Tower
- Cam Phillips making his mark on Toronto Argonauts offence
- Toronto Argonauts: 4 storylines ahead of matchup against Redblacks
- Federico Bernardeschi ready for new challenge with Toronto FC
- Toronto Argonauts overcome Roughriders in entertaining Touchdown Atlantic
- Buffalo Bills: Von Miller drawing inspiration from Bruce Smith
In other words, the only real argument to be made with these two players is whether the advantage Pearce provides over Smoak is greater on the offensive end or defensive end. He is clearly better in both categories by a significant margin, and unless Smoak starts to hit like he never has before, it would be hurting the team to go with that type of platoon alignment. The only downside to Pearce is that he is coming off an injury and has a bit of an injury history. But from a pure talent standpoint, he should be the everyday player.
That leads us to left field. Right now Carrera is likely slated to get the bulk of the at bats against RHP, while Upton will play mostly against LHP, but is that a fair platoon? Looking at it deeper, why isn’t Upton the starting left fielder and Carrera the fourth outfielder?
Carrera has a career 78 wRC+ against RHP (.649 OPS) in 726 plate appearances, and that falls right in line with what he has done against RHP since coming to Toronto in 2015 (77 wRC+, .647 OPS in 394 plate appearances). Simply put, he is not a good hitter against RHP and will hurt the team if used in that capacity. So using him in that role would not only be setting him up to fail but also hurting the team at the same time.
Upton is likely just as poor against RHP as Carrera (76 wRC+ over the past three seasons), but does everything else better. He is a better hitter against LHP, better defensively, a better base runner, and has more pop in his bat. That means even if he is not hitting well against RHP, he will be helping the team in other areas far better than Carrera could.
Toronto Blue Jays
Ideally, Upton would be a platoon option against LHP. So why use him as the starting left fielder in this scenario? Other than being the lesser of the two evils, he brings the better overall package. Prior to being traded to Toronto, he was a solid MLB outfielder with the Padres.
2015: 1.6 WAR, 109 wRC+, 228 PA
2016: 1.4 WAR, 99 wRC+, 374 PA
A lot of his value came from defense and base running, but he was able to be about a league average hitter overall which is a big reason for his 3 WAR pace over 600 plate appearances with San Diego.
His hitting dropped dramatically after the trade (-0.3 WAR, 52 wRC+, 165 PA). However, was that due to a mid-season league change? Maybe the mental hurdle of not only being traded, but also moving from a non-contender to a team with World Series goals? Regardless, if nothing else, recent history backs up Upton being a better overall player, and expecting an improvement on the offensive end next season is likely realistic.
Defensively, between San Diego and Toronto in 2016, he had a 10 DRS as a left fielder with a +2.6 UZR. His 5.7 BsR WAR (base running) ranked 12th in all of baseball for outfielders in 2016, and overall he stole 27 bases (8 CS). Putting him in left field with Kevin Pillar in centre field should compensate for having an older Jose Bautista in right field and add runs overall on the defensive end.
The difference between Upton and Carrera is not as clear-cut as the one between Pearce and Smoak. It would not be surprising if Upton and Carrera put up similar WAR’s next season. However, which of the two has the highest upside? Upton being the better base runner and defensive outfielder will make up for him being equally ineffective against RHP, and having him put up a WAR around 1-2 is far more realistic than getting the same output from Carrera.
Next: Is Biagini In Line for a Starting Role?
A great scenario for the Jays would be if Dalton Pompey won the job out of Spring Training and ran with it. Or if the front office had enough money left to sign Angel Pagan to platoon with Upton. However, if the projected roster does not change, then the team and Gibbons might need to re-evaluate any thoughts on strict platoons at first base and left field. Going with platoons with the current roster might hurt the team more than it helps.