Blue Jays: Breaking Down Wild Card Game Starters
With the Toronto Blue Jays officially clinching a postseason birth, we take a look at the starters for Tuesday’s Wild Card Game against the Baltimore Orioles.
Welcome back to the postseason, Toronto Blue Jays‘ fans!
After ending a 22 year playoff drought last season, the Blue Jays return to the playoffs for the second consecutive season, and the seventh time in franchise history. For the first time ever, though, Toronto will play in a Wild Card Game.
With it being a win-or-go-home elimination game, pitching is paramount. Tuesday’s tilt will see Marcus Stroman on the mound for the Blue Jays, and Chris Tillman for the Orioles.
Here’s a breakdown of each starting pitcher:
Marcus Stroman
Home Stats: 4-3 record, 104 innings pitched, 104 hits, 53 earned runs, 8 home runs, 27 walks, 78 strikeouts, 4.59 ERA
Season Stats versus Baltimore: 1-2 record, 23 innings pitched, 33 hits, 18 earned runs, 4 home runs, 4 walks, 12 strikeouts, 7.04 ERA
After a shaky first half of the season, Stroman has settled down and — despite a 2-6 record — has put together a fine second half. The 25-year-old right-hander boasts a 3.68 ERA and a 8.49 K/9 since the All-Star break, which is a vast improvement from the 4.89 ERA and 6.44 K/9 he posted before the All-Star break.
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Although Stroman has struggled against the Orioles this season, he’s been above average against the O’s in previous seasons, compiling a 1-1 record over 18 innings pitched to go along with 15 strikeouts and six earned runs. In his last outing against Baltimore on September 29th, Stroman threw seven innings while allowing nine hits and four earned runs in.
He wasn’t stellar by any means, but he wasn’t terrible either. The run support just wasn’t there for Stroman, which is something that has been an issue throughout September. During his six starts last month, the Blue Jays scored three or fewer runs in every game and were shutout three times.
Statistics aside, Stroman will be pitching on regular rest and, as we’ve seen in the past, he seems to have that “it factor” when pitching in big games.
Orioles Who Have had Success vs Stroman:
When you look at the Orioles lineup against all Blue Jays pitchers, Manny Machado (40 total bases) and Jonathan Schoop (38 total bases) have been a thorn in Toronto’s side. As an entire lineup, the Orioles sport a .256/.317/.434 slash line against the Jays to go along with 33 doubles and 28 home runs in 19 games this season.
Specific hitters who have had success against Stroman during their careers includes: Adam Jones (6-for-15 with 2 RBI), Mark Trumbo (5-for-11 with two doubles), and Matt Wieters (5-for-14 with two home runs and six RBI).
As for the Orioles two superstar hitters, Chris Davis and Machado, Davis is 4-for-13 with no home runs or doubles, while Machado is 3-for-12 against Stroman during his career with one double and one home run.
Overall, Baltimore’s roster has hit Stroman well during their careers, combining to form a .309/.347/.496 slash line to go along with eight doubles, six home runs and 23 RBI.
If Stroman Struggles…
Hopefully this doesn’t happen to the Blue Jays, but in the event Stroman struggles early on, Marco Estrada or Francisco Liriano would likely be the next two pitchers up.
Here’s a look at both pitchers stat lines at home and against the Orioles.
Marco Estrada
Home Stats: 3-7 record, 88.1 innings pitched, 70 hits, 35 earned runs, 12 home runs, 37 walks, 88 strikeouts, 3.57 ERA
Season Stats versus Baltimore: 2-0 record, 24 innings pitched, 19 hits, 8 earned runs, 3 home runs, 11 walks, 27 strikeouts, 3.00 ERA
Francisco Liriano
Home Stats (at Rogers Centre): 2-1 record, 29.1 innings pitched, 22 hits, 10 earned runs, 4 home runs, 10 walks, 33 strikeouts, 3.07 ERA
Splits versus Baltimore: 0-0 record, 6.1 innings pitched, 6 hits, 0 earned runs, 0 home runs, 1 walk, 10 strikeouts, 0.00 ERA
Both Estrada and Liriano have had success against the Orioles, albeit Liriano’s sample size is limited to one start, but the Jays clearly feel that Stroman gives them a better chance to win. However, I’d imagine the Blue Jays will keep Stroman on a short leash with both Estrada and Liriano on stand by.
Considering the Orioles struggles against lefties, I’d guess Liriano would be the first one into the game, but with Game 3 and 4 of the ALDS scheduled for October 9th and 10th, Estrada would get his usual five to six days of rest if he were to pitch in the Wild Card Game, so there’s nothing to worry about him either.
In a one-game playoff like the Wild Card Game, it’s all on hands on deck for the Blue Jays come Tuesday night.
Chris Tillman
Away Stats: 8-3 record, 88 innings pitched, 69 hits, 29 earned runs, 9 home runs, 30 walks, 60 strikeouts, 2.97 ERA
Season Stats versus Toronto: 1-0 record, 22.1 innings pitched, 20 hits, 9 earned runs, 3 home runs, 9 walks, 16 strikeouts, 3.63 ERA
Despite owning a 16-6 record, it’s been a tale of two halves for Orioles ace Chris Tillman. Before the All-Star break, the 28-year-old right-hander posted a 12-2 record with a 3.41 ERA and held opponents to a .232 batting average.
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Since the All-Star break, however, hitters have produced much better results against Tillman. In 11 starts he has given up 29 earned runs, while his line drive rate has gone from 21.8 percent before the All-Star break, to 23.6 percent after the break. He has also seen his strikeout rate decrease from 21.1 percent to 16.7 percent.
Tillman has still been effective for the Orioles during the second half, but he clearly hasn’t been the same pitcher. A contributing factor to his average second half results is likely the steady decrease in his fastball velocity. According to Brooks Baseball, Tillman’s fastball sat around 93 mph during April/May, and in September it sat at an average of 91.66 mph. It’s not a significant drop off, but perhaps he is battling fatigue?
However, despite his pedestrian second half numbers, Tillman is the Orioles best option, especially since Kevin Gausman pitched Sunday against the Yankees. Also, the Orioles seem to perform when Tillman is on the mound.
The Orioles are 22-8 in Chris Tillman's starts this year including a 4-0 mark versus Toronto.
— Steve Melewski (@masnSteve) October 3, 2016
Blue Jays Who Have had Success vs Tillman:
When you look at the Blue Jays lineup against all Orioles pitchers, Michael Saunders (53 total bases), Josh Donaldson (38 total bases) and Edwin Encarnacion (36 total bases) have had the most success against Baltimore. As an entire lineup, the Jays own a .251/.342/.469 slash line against the Jays to go along with 43 doubles and 29 home runs in 19 games this season.
Individually, a number of Jays hitters have had success against Tillman throughout their careers. Jose Bautista is 12-for-45 with three home runs and seven RBI; Encarnacion is 17-for-58 with three home runs and five RBI; Russell Martin is 6-for-14 with three doubles and seven walks; Kevin Pillar is 8-for-23 with three home runs and six RBI; Saunders is 6-for-21 with two home runs; and Troy Tulowitzki is 5-for-12 with three home runs and five RBI.
Overall, the Jays’ lineup owns a .299/.368/.580 slash line with 24 doubles, 20 home runs and 55 RBI against Tillman. It’s an impressive stat line that Jays’ fans hope will continue on Tuesday night.
If Tillman Were to Struggle…
Dylan Bundy or Ubaldo Jimenez would likely come in for Tillman if he were to struggle early on. Here’s a look at both pitchers stat lines at home and against the Orioles.
Road Stats: 5-3 record, 46.2 innings pitched, 55 hits, 27 earned runs, 9 home runs, 24 walks, 48 strikeouts, 5.21 ERA
Season Stats versus Toronto: 1-0 record, 3.2 innings pitched, 1 hits, 0 earned runs, 0 home runs, 2 walks, 4 strikeouts, 0.00 ERA
Road Stats: 4-7 record, 66.2 innings pitched, 60 hits, 37 earned runs, 6 home runs, 32 walks, 56 strikeouts, 5.00 ERA
Season Stats versus Toronto: 1-1 record, 21 innings pitched, 21 hits, 15 earned runs, 4, home runs, 11 walk, 19 strikeouts, 6.43 ERA
Prior to his fantastic outing against the Blue Jays on September 29th, Jimenez has struggled mightily against Toronto, which likely makes him an emergency option for the Orioles on Tuesday. Instead, I think they would turn to Bundy, who the Blue Jays have hardly seen.
The former top prospect has struggled to keep the ball in the park at times, but his ability to miss bats (104 strikeouts in 109.2 innings pitched) makes him a compelling option. Yes, Jimenez shares a similar ability, but I think since the Blue Jays have faced him in the past and had success, the Orioles would opt to go with Bundy instead, who Toronto has only seen in a few relief appearances.
Next: Blue Jays in Turmoil On and Off the Field
Who do you think has the pitching advantage between the Orioles and Blue Jays? Let us know in the comments below.