With Brandon Prust it’s the Leafs or Bust

There has been a great deal of debate over whether or not Brandon Prust‘s gritty style of play could also be a good fit for the Toronto Marlies. Today we discuss why we don’t think he will end up in the AHL if he doesn’t crack the Leafs’ roster.

A popular notion often repeated by Leaf fans and hockey pundits alike is that if Prust does not find a spot on the roster at the beginning of the season, he can bide his time plying his craft with the Leafs‘ AHL affiliate, the Toronto Marlies.

Then when a trade takes place, presumably initiated to make room specifically for Prust, or injuries make a roster spot available, he gets the call to resume his NHL career.

I’m not so sure about this and here is why:

Roster rules in the AHL have a few foibles that make them quite different than those of the NHL. The first dissimilarity is that there are no roster size limits in the AHL which allows teams to carry a few extra bodies to contend with the grueling three games in three nights scenario often played out in the minor leagues.

Though an unlimited roster size has its advantages, adequate ice time must be found for developing prospects so there are practical limits.

The AHL is considered a development league, both in terms of how it is utilized by the NHL organizations that form associations with each of its individual teams and also in terms of its own self identify.

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Subsequently, to insure the focus remains on icing teams that have the best chance of fulfilling this developmental mandate, players are classified by professional experience and placed into one of three categories: Development Players, Veteran Exempt Development Players, or Veteran Players.

Of the 18 skaters that teams can dress for an AHL game, at least 13 must be qualified as “Development Players” and can include one “Veteran Exempt Development Player”. Of those 13, a minimum of 12 players must have played in 260 or fewer professional games and one must have played in 320 or fewer professional games (this can be between 260 and 320 games).

The remaining five lineup spots can be filled with “Veteran Players” having 320 games of professional experience or more but it is important to keep in mind this number of lineup spots is not mandatory.

Any of the game lineup spots beyond the first 12 Development Player spots can be filled with Development Players with less than 260 games of professional experience.

This includes the one Veteran Exempt Development Player spot and the five Veteran Player spots.

All calculations for AHL player status are based on regular season totals as of the start of the season. Professional game experience includes any games played in the NHL, AHL, KHL and all European Elite Leagues. Goaltenders are exempt from these categories.

Where there is no limit to the amount of veterans a team can have on its roster in the AHL, only five players with over 320 games of professional experience can dress for any given game.

So what does this have to do with Brandon Prust?

With 486 NHL games under his belt, Prust would join Andrew Campbell, Richard Clune and Marc-Andre Cliche as Veteran status players under contract with the Marlies for the upcoming season. But that’s only four including Prust, …….so where’s the problem?

The problem lies in two areas, the first issue is with his role of enforcer. Arguably it is a role already filled by players under contract with the Marlies. Clune is an enforcer, especially amongst the middleweight ranks. Cliche is no slouch either but there is another player, an unheralded off-season signing of one of the AHL’s most feared fighters in Daniel Maggio.

Add to this the number of rather large defencemen and other big bodies coming to camp and Prust simply may not be needed for this role with the Marlies.

The second issue is admittedly something of a “what if” but very probable in its nature. The Leaf training camp as we all know features logjams at all forward positions, including Prust’s home on left wing. What this situation will inevitably mean is there will be a number of surprises in terms of who the Leafs assign to begin the season with the Marlies.

I have speculated before that the waiver wire might be used by the Leafs to clear out a few contracts deemed expendable. There are also a number of contracts that the Leafs are riding out until expiry that no other team would likely claim on waivers. These realities could see any of Joffrey Lupul, Brooks Laich, Colin Greening, Milan Michalek and even Peter Holland waived for re-assignment to the Marlies.

Now take a look at this situation through franchise wide lenses.

It is entirely possible that many of these players named could begin the season in the AHL. Add three or four bodies to the Marlies roster who are all Veteran Player status and it then becomes seven or eight bodies platooning for five lineup spots. It could even be more, depending on what takes place at the Marlies training camp.

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When we take a step back and look at this broader picture, this is year two of an organizational wide rebuild. In year one of the rebuild, the Marlies seemed to be dressing 14 or 15 Development Players per game, while rotating four to six Veteran Players in and out of three or four spots in the lineup.

It is important to note that two of those Veteran Players were added as the season progressed with the signing of enforcer Justin Johnson and the acquisition of Ben Smith via trade.  From this we can rightfully assume the Marlies will approach the 2016-17 season in the same manner in maintaining roster flexibility to ice a similar number of Development Players per game.

Additionally, there are but two standard player contracts remaining and I for one cannot imagine that one of these precious remaining SPC’s will be used to exacerbate an undesirable platoon situation of cast off veterans in the minors.

Again I will concede this scenario still sounds somewhat like a “what if” but the fact remains, that the Leafs have too many marginal veterans under contract that are taking up valuable roster spots needed to give the younger players important ice time minutes.

Something simply has to give.

The final consideration is cap space. At the time of this posting the Leafs are $315,000 over the cap according to Cap Friendly.  There are a number of scenarios that could play out here, including the re-assignment of one or more of the aforementioned veterans to the Marlies, or simply more of a deficit added to the cap with a Prust signing.

The latter would entail that the Leafs would be utilizing Long Term Injury Cap Relief, which is a situation we know NHL teams with outstanding player bonuses try to avoid if possible. Each of the veterans mentioned would provide $950K in cap relief as they are all subject to a league formula of the league minimum salary plus $350K.

One veteran sent down makes the Leafs cap compliant, two veterans sent down adds a bit of cap breathing room, three veterans sent down gives the cap flexibility for future needs. By the time this point is reached however, the undesirable platoon of Veteran Players is formed at the AHL level.

Next: Do the Leafs Need More Enforcers?

Based on these considerations, I am of the opinion that it is the Leafs or bust for Prust. What do you think?