Toronto Blue Jays: The Aaron Sanchez Conundrum

With the Toronto Blue Jays trying to manage the innings of Aaron Sanchez, the team faces a conundrum with their pitching rotation.

The Toronto Blue Jays are in the middle of a massive conundrum. Should Aaron Sanchez be placed in the bullpen in the middle of a pennant race, or should he remain in the starting rotation, where he has arguably been the best starter in the American League?

In a surprise move, general manager Ross Atkins has said that Sanchez will remain in the starting rotation for the time being. However, the decision came with a caveat that the rotation be stretched to include recently acquired Francisco Liriano, in a six-man rotation.

While this is definitely the good news Blue Jays fans wanted to hear, the debate still rages on. So when Atkins announced plans for the six-man rotation, I wondered how many less starts could Sanchez make?

How many innings will it save the 24-year old, how does it affect the other starters, and will he be able to start in the postseason? Here’s a look at a projected pitching schedule for the Blue Jays:

How many less starts could Sanchez potentially make with the six-man rotation as compared to the five-man rotation?

I put together the Blue Jays schedule from now until the end of the season. In a five-man rotation, Sanchez would make 11 starts, if he didn’t skip any.

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Obviously that cannot and will not happen, considering the 2010 first round draft pick has thrown around 140 innings this season. If he pitches 11 more games at around six innings per start, this would equate to 66 innings, giving him 206 innings pitched for the season, 24 under the 230 president Mark Shapiro said he would not exceed.

I 100 percent agree with Shapiro on this point – there is no chance Sanchez can add another 90 innings over the course of his season, because that is how young pitchers can get hurt. So the real question is, how many starts/innings would the six-man rotation save him over the course of the season?

In a six-man rotation, the Barstow, California native would only be making nine starts as opposed to 11 in a standard five-man rotation. When you review the schedule and look at the dates and teams he is projected to start against, there are two dates where you can seemingly skip his start and replace him in the rotation with a Scott Feldman or Mike Bolsinger.

The two dates are August 27 versus the Minnesota Twins and September 16 versus the Los Angeles Angels. I highlighted these in red, because they are against lesser opponents where you wouldn’t necessarily need to start him, and they’re accompanied with off-days following the end of the rotation, which would allow the bullpen to rest.

How many innings will the six-man rotation save Sanchez as opposed to a five-man rotation?

In my projected schedule, I have Sanchez making seven more starts as opposed to 11, which would equate to 24 less innings pitched as opposed to the amount he was projected to get in a normal five-man rotation. This is obviously a massive difference and should allow him to remain fresh throughout the rest of the season and potentially through the postseason (as a starter or a reliever).

How does this affect the other starters?

Obviously for those who have been watching, the Blue Jays pitching staff has been other worldly good, and that statement is backed up by statistics:

However, something interesting to note about the rotation is that, outside of R.A. Dickey, all of these pitchers could use the extra rest. For example, Marco Estrada has been fantastic, but has had an issue with his back for a while now, and the extra rest could be exactly what he needs to continue his dominance, especially heading into the postseason.

Marcus Stroman should be on a similar innings limit as Sanchez (even though he questionably has not), and J.A. Happ could definitely use some rest in order to keep his velocity up, and to protect him for the postseason. Liriano is a complete wild card – even though he has been fantastic with Russell Martin catching him, he does have one of the worst ERAs in baseball.

Overall, while it may take these guys out of their rhythm, if Liriano can be an average starter who gives the Blue Jays a chance to win, it should help them all stay fresh for the stretch run as well as the postseason. This is something other teams don’t have the luxury of doing.

Final Verdict: Will the six-man rotation plus skipped starts allow for Sanchez to start in the postseason?

Ultimately I have no idea. For all the, “this isn’t an innings conversation,” the Blue Jays management has brought up, it no doubt is. Sanchez has essentially cruised through his first 140 innings with very few stressful innings, and no visible fatigue or dip in velocity.

I think that following the backlash throughout the industry, scaling back the 2016 All-Star’s workload with the six-man rotation is no doubt a unique, but correct decision. Stretching out those innings will surely add to his longevity in the rotation.

Next: Will the Blue Jays win the AL East?

How the Blue Jays handle his total innings is unclear, but should they follow a similar schedule to the one I laid out, there is no reason why Sanchez can’t enter the postseason at around 185 innings. This would allow for him to make at least four more starts in the postseason (enough to get to the World Series), where the conversation will then switch back to how he and the rest of the rotation will look and feel, which I hope is rested and dominant.