Toronto Blue Jays Should be Cautious with Melvin Upton Jr. and Andrew Cashner
The Toronto Blue Jays have reportedly kicked the tires on San Diego Padres starting pitcher Andrew Cashner and outfielder Melvin Upton Jr.
It sounds like the Toronto Blue Jays are not only battling the Baltimore Orioles in the AL East standings, but also in the trade market.
According to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, both the Blue Jays and Orioles have discussed a trade for San Diego Padres outfielder Melvin Upton Jr., and starting pitcher Andrew Cashner.
Sources: #BlueJays have discussed both Cashner, Melvin Upton Jr. with #Padres. No traction on Cashner due to perceived difference in value.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 23, 2016
Unclear whether #BlueJays would want Upton if they can’t get Cashner, too. #Padres trying to pit TOR against BAL on Upton for better return.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 23, 2016
Upton and Cashner have both been hot names in recent trade rumours. According to Rosenthal, the Padres and Orioles have discussed a deal involving Ubaldo Jimenez and Upton, but San Diego is trying to drive the price up by attempting to create leverage with other offers.
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What the Blue Jays would give up is unknown, but if the Padres are keen on receiving two prospects back for Cashner and/or Upton, the price might be a bit steep. Financially, Upton is owed $32 million over the next two seasons. By acquiring him the Blue Jays would either be committed to upping their payroll, or looking to replace one of their two soon-to-be free agent outfielders. In other words, the fan base would ring the Jose Bautista/Edwin Encarnacion extension alarms, better known as one of them is not coming back.
Upton is having a great season at the plate, hitting .259/.307/.444 with 16 home runs and 20 stolen bases through 91 games. He’s a legit 30-30 threat every year, but he’s also a feast-or-famine type player who boasts a 26.5 percent career strikeout rate.
Is this just a great year? Or is this a true revival of his career? It’s tough to say. Defensively, Upton has been above average this year, which is a nice boost to his game, but offensively he’s been great. His 33.8 percent hard hit rate ranks 83rd in the majors, ahead of players like Andrew McCutchen and Bryce Harper, while his 19.5 percent home run-to-fly ball rate ranks 32nd.
It’s never been a question of talent or raw power for Upton. It’s been about consistency and pitch selection. He seems to have turned his career around in San Diego this year, and looks like he’s having fun again too, but can the Blue Jays trust him to keep this up?
Given the asking price and financial commitment, the Blue Jays would likely be better served using that money elsewhere.
Much like Upton, consistency — and health — has plagued Cashner throughout his career. When he’s “on”, his repertoire can be lights out. An example of this was two years ago when he threw a 108 pitch complete game shutout against the Detroit Tigers, and blew a fastball by Miguel Cabrera in the top of the ninth inning to close the game out.
That was two years ago, though. Since then, Cashner has only shown flashes of that brilliant outing and remains a tantalizing pitcher. His 3.78 career xFIP suggests there is more to his game than his 4.79 ERA and 4.53 xFIP this year would indicate. However, the long ball is a big reason why Cashner has seen his numbers spike this year. He boasts a career worst 1.35 home run per nine innings rate this season, with six of the 11 home runs being hit at the spacious Petco Park.
How would his propensity to serve up the long ball translate in the American League East? The Blue Jays defence is better than the Padres defence, which would help, but in fly ball friendly parks like the Rogers Centre and Fenway Park, Cashner would have to be much sharper.
Cashner is set to become an unrestricted free agent this offseason and can only help his future stock by pitching well for a contender. The Blue Jays scouted his outing this past week, and with Aaron Sanchez eventually heading to the bullpen, Cashner could be a decent No. 3 or 4 starter for Toronto.
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I’m likely in the group of people who believe in Cashner’s talent more than others do, but at the right cost he could be a nice addition to the Blue Jays rotation. As is the case with most trades during the MLB Trade Deadline, it will all come down to cost for the Blue Jays and how much ownership is willing to financially invest in this team.