Blue Jays: What the Justin Smoak Extension Could Mean

The Toronto Blue Jays have agreed to a two-year extension with first baseman Justin Smoak, according to multiple reports.

According to Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi, the Toronto Blue Jays have agreed to a two-year contract extension with Justin Smoak. The deal will pay the 29-year-old first baseman $4.125 million a season.

There is also a team option for the 2019 season with a floor of $6 million, but could increase to as much as $8 million depending on Smoak’s plate appearances during the 2018 season. The option does have a $250,000 buyout attached to it, which puts Smoak’s deal at a grand total of $8.5 million.

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The decision to extend Smoak is an interesting one. The former top prospect has played well defensively, but it is only hitting .234/.333/.402 with nine home runs and a robust 32 percent strikeout rate.

Smoak’s power is legit, but so are his strikeouts. That combination has made the former University of South Carolina standout a tantalizing player. When he’s playing well, you have the ideal power hitting first baseman who also switch hits. Unfortunately, Smoak has only shown this in spurts during his MLB career, and has failure to maintain consistency is part of why the Seattle Mariners decided to move on from him after the 2014 season.

With Smoak not yet a finished product, the extension isn’t necessarily a huge leap of faith by the Blue Jays, but it’s still a commitment. Going forward, the team now has $88.625 million guaranteed to six players for the 2017 season. For a team that has hovered around the $135 million range with its budget, that’s a lot of money tied up between six players.

Now add in the potential salary of Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion and Michael Saunders, and you could see where the problems start to arise. Let’s say the Blue Jays bring back their trio of soon to be free agents at a total of $55 million ($20 million to Bautista and Encarnacion, and $15 million to Saunders). That would push next year’s payroll to $143.625 million — and that’s just the total salary committed to nine players.

On top of the potential salary issues, the extension of Smoak now likely eliminates the idea of transitioning Bautista or Saunders to first base. So unless the Blue Jays keep Saunders in left, Bautista in right, and Encarnacion as the designated hitter, and increase payroll, the likelihood of all three players coming back seems low.

General manager Ross Atkins insists the extension of Smoak has no impact on the team’s ability to sign Encarnacion, or anyone else for that matter, but, really, what else is he supposed to say?

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When you look at the Blue Jays future, though, with Smoak now occupying a potential transition spot for Bautista or Saunders, Encarnacion predominately limited to designated hitting duties, the Jays’ farm system riddled with outfielders, and the uncertainty surrounding the team’s budget, the extension of Smoak brings more questions than it does answers.