Why the Toronto Maple Leafs Should Not Trade the No. 1 Pick

The Toronto Maple Leafs won the Auston Matthews sweepstakes Saturday night, but the idea of trading the No. 1 pick remains a topic of discussion among fans.

Before Saturday’s glorious victory, the idea of the Toronto Maple Leafs securing the No. 1 pick was a dream carefully discussed by the fan base. Attached with that dream were two schools of thought: 1) draft Auston Matthews, or 2) trade the pick for a lucrative return.

The consensus decision on what the Leafs should do with the pick is obvious thus far. Draft Matthews.

But admit it, we’ve all had this discussion with a friend, co-worker, family member, or patron at our local watering hole where the question pops up, “what would it take for you to trade the No. 1 pick?”

Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman asked Maple Leafs president Brendan Shanahan on Saturday night if there were any circumstances where the Leafs would trade the pick. Here’s what Shanahan had to say (H/T Leafs Reddit user Tyoung1110 for the video):

In true Shanahan fashion, he was cool as a cucumber and provided a vague response that carried enough substance to be considered a more than plausible answer.

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Despite being asked this question only minutes after winning the top pick, I think the vibe here is that the Leafs are going to keep the pick, which I’d say is the right decision for a couple of reasons.

The obvious is it’s Auston Matthews. You don’t pass on a player like him. He’s been described as someone who can transcend a franchise, and if not for being born a few days after the age cutoff, some believe he would’ve been selected before Jack Eichel in the 2015 NHL Draft.

It’s not just his talent that makes him an easy choice for the Maple Leafs, however. It’s the financial flexibility his entry-level contract provides. For comparisons sake, we’ll use Connor McDavid‘s contract.

McDavid signed a three-year, $11,325,000 contract with the Oilers last season, with an average annual salary of $3,775,000. His cap hit is projected at $925,000 for each of those three seasons, but if he meets his performance bonuses, it could rise to as high as $3,775,000. Either way, having a player liker McDavid at that price is a steal.

Now apply those same numbers to Matthews and the Leafs. Toronto’s salary cap is projected to sit at just over $64 million next year, according to CapFriendly.com. With the NHL salary cap projected at $74 million, that gives the Leafs about $10 million to spend this offseason, which could fluctuate based on other roster moves.

Adding a player like Matthews under a McDavid-like contract structure would be more than ideal for the Leafs. Looking ahead, with a projected $33 million in cap space after next season, Matthews entry-level deal would allow the Leafs to be major players in free agency, or the trade market, following next season.

The key for the Leafs when negotiating Matthews contract would be his performance bonuses. According to CapFriendly, “performance bonuses count against the salary cap; however, a team can exceed the salary cap due to performance bonuses by the maximum performance bonus cushion amount of 7.5% of the upper limit.”

In a nutshell, the Leafs would once again have financial flexibility thanks to Matthews entry-level contract. Considering Brandon Pridham, also known as the salary cap wizard, is the Leafs’ capologist, I’m sure the team will come up with a very creative contract that will benefit both parties.

So is there a trade out there that could interest the Leafs?

Let’s say Arizona made a lucrative offer that included Oliver Ekman-Larsson, the No. 7 overall pick, and either Max Domi or Dylan Strome for the No. 1 pick and salary cap relief in the form of Joffrey Lupul. Would the Leafs consider it?

Numbers wise it would work out for the Leafs. But unless there is a guarantee of a player like Steven Stamkos signing in Toronto this offseason, the gamble of trading away a potentially generational player like Auston Matthews is not worth the risk.

The hype around Matthews is real. He’s a cerebral talent that evaluators struggle to say bad things about. Seriously, find a glaring flaw in his game. It’s a difficult task.

Why on earth would you pass on a player like that?

The Leafs haven’t had a true No. 1 center since Mats Sundin left the franchise following the 2007-08 season. For what it’s worth, the last number drawn to secure the No. 1 pick for the Leafs was 13. Perhaps that’s a sign the Leafs should keep the top pick and fill the void left by No. 13, Mats Sundin.

What do you think the Leafs should do with the No. 1 pick? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below.

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