Toronto Raptors need Jonas Valanciunas back but can't rush him

We look at when Toronto Raptors centre Jonas Valanciunas is likely to return, as he continues his recovery from thumb surgery.

The Toronto Raptors came through with an important, but underwhelming win against the Phoenix Suns on Thursday night. Even allowing for the absence of Kawhi Leonard, it shouldn’t take a last second shot to beat an opponent with a lowly 11-35 record, especially at home.

Which brings us to Jonas Valanciunas. As much as basketball is a team game, there is no doubt the Raptors have missed him during his absence.

When Valanciunas dislocated his thumb during the 113-93 win in Golden State, it came at a time when the Raptors were riding high. Completing the season sweep against the Warriors and improving their record to 23-7, had them proclaimed as the top team in the NBA.

Since then, however, the Raptors have been somewhat inconsistent, going 11-6 in their last 17 games. While this would still work out to a 53-29 record over the course of a season, it’s clear something isn’t quite right.

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There are a number of factors involved, including Kyle Lowry‘s ongoing back issues and shooting woes, along with the Raptors’ focus on preparing for the postseason. (As Masai Ujiri and Nick Nurse said before the 2018-19 campaign started, it doesn’t matter what you do during the regular season; it’s all about performing when the playoffs begin.)

However, one of the biggest reasons for the team’s recent run of form, is the absence of Valanciunas. It doesn’t matter than he is no longer a starter; he is still vitally important to how successful the Raptors will be.

Despite averaging the fewest minutes per game of his career, the 26-year-old was enjoying arguably his best season since entering the NBA in 2012-13. His efficiency prior to his injury was at an all-time high, as evidenced by career-bests for field goal and free-throw percentage.

Valanciunas’ effectiveness becomes more clear, when you look at his statistics per 36 minutes. Across the board he’s never played better, as per his points, rebounds, assists and even steals.

Away from the numbers, the 2011 fifth overall draft pick is a good teammate, and not just for accepting his reduced role off the bench. He’s well-liked by his fellow players and coaches alike, with his affable nature and sense of humour a key aspect in building camaraderie within the roster.

With all this in mind, thoughts turn to when Valanciunas will actually return to action. When he originally dislocated his left thumb and underwent surgery in mid-December, the prognosis was he would be out for at least four weeks.

However, nearly a month later, after having his cast removed, the recovery period was increased by another four weeks. At this stage, Blake Murphy of The Athletic reported the centre would wear a splint while being consistently re-evaluated, and focusing on range of motion and strength in the joint.

Nurse has hopes that Valanciunas can beat the updated four-week timetable. The big man has gotten to the point where he is now involved in 60-70 percent of practices, although he isn’t going through any contact work or rebounding drills.

Leaving aside the head coach’s hopes, if we stick to the extended four week rehab period, this would put the Lithuanian international in line to return on Feb. 6. And it would be a big game, in Philadelphia against a 76ers team who also have high hopes of winning the Eastern Conference this season.

However, as much as the Raptors do need Valanciunas back, they must be sure not to rush him and risk any further setbacks. With this in mind, you can make an argument for not playing him until after the All-Star break.

Yes, this would mean the two-time FIBA Young Player of the Year missing another five games. But if it also means he’s fully recovered, that has to be the most important thing.

We appreciate Valanciunas has his critics and arguably still hasn’t reached his full potential. However, he will be an invaluable component come playoff time.

In this respect, the four-time Lithuanian Player of the Year has already proved he can step up when the lights shine brightest. Consider that his first ever playoff appearance saw him set a franchise record for rebounds in a postseason game. (He also became just the second Raptor to record a double-double in his playoff debut.)

Other examples of Valanciunas’ ability to step up in playoff time came during the series against the Indian Pacers, following the 2015-16 season. He set another franchise record for postseason rebounds in Game 1, along with a personal career-high of 23 points during Game 2.

Even during last season’s second round sweep against the Cleveland Cavaliers, the 2013 NBA All-Rookie Second Team selection had his moments. The highlight was the 21 points and 21 boards he recorded in Game 1, given him the best double-double performance by a player in franchise playoff history.

Ultimately, we predict Valanciunas will be given at least a couple of games prior to the All-Star break. This will give the Raptors the chance to ease him slowly back into game shape, while still offering the bonus of more rest/recovery time between Feb. 15-22.

Next. Raptors' wish list for 2019. dark

How much does Valanciunas mean to the Toronto Raptors? What kind of impact do you expect from him when he finally returns? Share your thoughts in the comments section below.

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Toronto Raptors need Jonas Valanciunas back but can’t rush him

By Paul Taylor | Jan 18, 2019

We look at when Toronto Raptors centre Jonas Valanciunas is likely to return, as he continues his recovery from thumb surgery.