Buffalo Sabres: Third time lucky in the draft lottery?
By Paul Taylor
The Buffalo Sabres will likely once again have one of the top picks in the draft, but will first have to navigate the uncertainty of another lottery, with history not being too kind to them.
Saturday night’s 7-4 win over the Nashville Predators must have been simultaneously exciting and frustrating for Buffalo Sabres fans. On the positive side, the Swords beat the team with the most points in the NHL this season.
On the flip side, however, fans surely wondered why the Sabres couldn’t do this on a more consistent basis? How do you beat one of the top teams in the league, in a season where you’re sitting dead last in the standings?
Talking of which, Sabres fans will have noted the win takes their team to within three points of 30th place, as of Monday morning. Is it possible that the franchise which often seems to get things wrong, will somehow screw up finishing bottom of the NHL and giving themselves the best lottery odds?
In fairness to Jason Botterill and company, not finishing last might actually be a good thing. Look no further than recent history for supporting evidence.
As most Sabres supporters will be painfully aware, the team twice finished dead last in recent years, in 2014 and 2015. And both times, they found themselves picking second in the draft, as a result of the dreaded lottery.
Undoubtedly, 2015 was the one which hurt most. No matter how good Jack Eichel is or will be, he will still never be on the same level as the generational talent of Connor McDavid.
In that respect, the consensus top pick ahead of this year’s draft is Rasmus Dahlin, who has been described by Sportsnet as a franchise-changing defenseman. Given the help the Sabres still need on the blue line, there is no denying picking Dahlin would be a significant coup for them.
Again though, if the Swords do manage to hang on for 31st place, the lottery ensures there are no guarantees for them. And to make matters worse, the odds for clinching the top pick have actually decreased.
When the Sabres finished last in 2014 the odds for the first pick were set at 25 percent. The following season, their odds dropped to 20 percent.
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Now, thanks to the revised odds, the team which finishes last this season will have a 18.5 percent chance of picking first in the 2018 draft. For what it’s worth, given the number of games left and the Sabres’ current standing, their odds of getting the number one overall draft pick will be no lower than 8.5 percent.
The Blue and Gold franchise has endured a lot of bad luck over the years. As such, fans will no doubt believe they’re destined to miss out on the first overall pick, no matter what their odds are entering the draft lottery.
At least all hope is not entirely lost, even if the Sabres do miss out on Dahlin. If they do decide to go for need, Adam Boqvist and Noah Dobson are also top-notch blue line talents.
However, such is the life of Buffalo sports fans, they will likely still bemoan not getting Dahlin and fear him going on to have a Hall of Fame-worthy NHL career. If they can handle it, the draft lottery will take place on Apr. 28 at 8 pm (ET).
Next: Jack Eichel perplexed by another lost season
Obviously there is no way of knowing at this point, but let’s have some fun with this. What is your prediction for what position the Buffalo Sabres will be selecting in the first round of this year’s draft? Further, pending your prediction, who do you think they will pick? Share your comments below.