Sizing Up the 2014-15 Eastern Conference’s Potential
Who is the favourite to win the Eastern Conference next season? Many experts can’t answer this question. Where do the Toronto Raptors fit into everything? It’s hard to answer this question, too.
Everybody has a chance. Well, mostly everyone does… perhaps omitting Milwaukee from the conversation, but even they must be more excited than last year (but everything is relative, right?). But “mostly everybody” has a strong case for their team. Maybe we should review every team starting with how they finished last year?
This column will be a regular feature, looking at the NBA’s Eastern Conference and projecting where each contending team will finish. It begins at the top of the standings from 2013-14 and looks at the conference from the perspective of the Raptors.
Atlanta: Maybe the hardest team to pick in the whole Eastern Conference is the Atlanta Hawks. Why? Actually, believe it or not, Atlanta was a top-four team in the East before all-star forward Al Horford went down. And now, he’s back. But Atlanta, as consequence, seems to be the team forgotten in the East. However, they can make some noise, disrupting most projected scenes in the conference. Horford returns to a roster that includes what perhaps is the quietest all-star in history (in terms of buzz) in Paul Millsap (right).
The potential good: Like I said, Horford is back. And Atlanta is good when he plays. How good? Well, on their pace with Horford, they would’ve compiled a 45-37 record in an entire season. So that’s okay… not great though. You know with how great the East was last year (I hope you read sarcasm well…), that would’ve done well– actually gotten fifth place, right in front of Washington. And we’ve seen the praise I’ve dumped on Washington. So maybe this hype should be on ATL?
Personally, Horford was shooting 57% from the field, and a career high 18.6 per game. But as a team– this is a team preview, not individual– Atlanta fared quite a bit differently with and without Big Al. Jared Dubin of Bleacher Report compiled the following statistical comparison of the numbers.
|Before Horford’s Injury||After Horford’s Injury|
Basically what I’m trying to convey to you is that Horford is valuable. I’m not sure if the NBA does a WAR (wins above replacement) like baseball does, but this is evidence enough that Horford is q big WAR’er (that was supposed to be a funny… but it didn’t work out is well as I planned). The point still remains the same: Horford makes Atlanta a threat.
More potential good: The roster looks pretty good. I said Horford is back, and so is the game’s most effective spacer in Kyle Korver (right). This could make for a deadly combination. Aside from these two, Atlanta traded Lou Williams to Toronto, but acquired John Salmons in return. To replace Williams, Atlanta landed Thabo Sefolosha, who comes from powerhouse Oklahoma City. They drafted Adreian Payne out of Michigan State, a big body that appears ready for the NBA. Demarre Carroll looked great in his breakout year and the latter two are in great position to be mentored by savvy veteran, Elton Brand (below, right).
More potential good: As I’ve commented for all Southeast Division teams, LeBron James has left Miami. So Atlanta gets to play a team without James (as does everyone else, too, granted… but teams play teams within their own division much more than teams from other divisions, so Southeast Division teams benefit a whole lot more). That creates a major void in the Southeast Division.
The potential bad: All of a sudden, the Southeast Division looks deep. Washington appears to be the clear pick, Charlotte is on the rise, even Orlando must be better, and Miami are still the Heat (and have Chris Bosh and Dwayne Wade). Atlanta is oft-forgotten but shouldn’t be underestimated. However, only one team from the division is guaranteed a playoff spot. But having three playoff teams means a lot of wins in the division, which means a fair bit of losing too…
More potential bad: However, as ESPN’s Michael Wilbon likes to point out, Atlanta has never won anything… and more often than not, they are pretenders rather than contenders. They always seem like they’re right there but can’t take the next step. So it’s awfully difficult to bank on this team going forward until they show us something. And this year, it looks like they can atleast. But, will it be the same old story?
2013-14 Eastern Conference regular season rank: 8th place
“We’re not focused on trying to be the eighth seed in the playoffs because that’s not our goal,” said Hawks’ GM Danny Ferry. “We’re trying to build something that’s good, sustainable.”
“And the components are in place for us to do so.”
This year’s potential pre-season FS rank: 8th place*
*With the injury of Paul George, Atlanta is likely to vault past Indiana
As I’m writing this, I almost wanna go back and change some projections. It’s fair because of the injury to Paul George… and how often Atlanta is forgotten. However, it was truly difficult to suggest the powerhouse of the last few years– Miami– could miss the playoffs (not to mention Brooklyn… except I just did). But the idea is getting more and more traction in my mind, especially when considering the Hawks (who I think actually are as good, if not better than Miami). As such, it’d be easiest to give Atlanta a range of about second to fifteenth, but that’d be terribly uninformative.
I think Washington takes the division, but somebody has to win it– Washington, Charlotte, and Atlanta may be a beautiful dogfight all year long (sorry Michael Vick… didn’t mean anything by that) . A reasonable range for Atlanta is fifth to ninth, with better than a lotto ticket’s chance for the Hawks to steal the second seed.
Click here to return to the intro page, which includes links to the rest of the preview series.