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Toronto Maple Leafs can absolutely be the next Tampa Bay Lightning

By Brad Vos

Mar 10, 2020; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs forward John Tavares (91) and Tampa Bay Lightning forward Alex Killorn (17) battle for position during the third period at Scotiabank Arena. Toronto defeated Tampa Bay. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 10, 2020; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs forward John Tavares (91) and Tampa Bay Lightning forward Alex Killorn (17) battle for position during the third period at Scotiabank Arena. Toronto defeated Tampa Bay. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports /
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Toronto Maple Leafs
Toronto Maple Leafs goalie Jack Campbell (36) makes a save against the Montreal Canadiens. (Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports) /

Toronto Maple Leafs must evaluate if they have the right goalie to win big

Jack Campbell was a great story in net for the Toronto Maple Leafs last season. The journeyman backup seized the starting crease after an injury to long-time starter Frederik Andersen caused him to miss time.

The former first-round selection of the Dallas Stars started 22 regular season games for Toronto, posting a .921 save percentage and 2.15 goals against average. His GAA ranked sixth in the NHL among goalies with at least 20 starts in 2020-21, according to Stathead.

Digging into advanced statistics a little bit further, Campbell was 15th in the league among goalies in quality start percentage, a metric that measures starts when a goalie’s SV% is greater than the average SV% for the year, or at least 88.5% on nights with 20 or fewer shots against. Basically, how good of a chance did the starting goalie give the team to win. League average is not what you want if you have dreams of winning it all.

It is worth noting that Campbell was certainly not the problem in the playoffs, posting the second-best GAA of all postseason netminders, right behind our pal Andrei. Five of his seven starts were considered quality by the Stathead metric and his 1.81 GAA was best among playoff goaltenders. The Port Huron, Michigan native deserved a far better fate than being ousted in the opening round.

Given the surprising nature of Campbell’s ascension to the starting role and his career before last season’s run, the team has to be looking at other options for a goaltending tandem. I get that Vasilevskiy’s don’t grow on trees (Vasilev-trees?), but having Campbell as the full-time starter seems like it would have a ceiling for a team clearly in win-now mode.

The Athletic’s Jonas Siegel wrote a great piece breaking down 18 goalies who make sense for Toronto (subscription required). While Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic reported that Frederik Andersen could be back with the Leafs next season (subscription required), it seems unlikely. Siegel notes that Marc-Andre Fleury, Chris Driedger and Darcy Kuemper are among the names that could be a fit with Campbell in the Maple Leafs’ net.

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