Toronto Maple Leafs are no sure bet when playing on home ice

Toronto Maple Leafs Scotiabank Arena (Photo by Claus Andersen/Getty Images) *** Local Caption ***
Toronto Maple Leafs Scotiabank Arena (Photo by Claus Andersen/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** /

The Toronto Maple Leafs might have one of the better home-ice advantages at Scotiabank Arena, but this doesn’t translate well to the world of sports betting.

There are a lot of hockey fans out there who enjoy making a bet – some more often than others. If this includes yourself, it seems that one team you don’t want to put your hard-earned money on is the Toronto Maple Leafs.

This information comes courtesy of an interesting read from Alex Moretto of theScore. In the article, Moretto writes that the Leafs are the fourth-worst team in the NHL to place bets on, when it comes to winning at home.

Before we delve into this, let’s provide some context. As Moretto advised in an earlier article, you should be aware of home/road splits when it comes to betting; they don’t offer much of an edge, as oddsmakers generally factor them heavily into the lines.

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Taking this into account, if you bet $100 on every home team during the 2019-20 season up to the point it was suspended, the Leafs would have lost you $819. Even though they had a straight up records of 18-16, Moretto noted they were undone by an inflated average line of -184. (Only four teams had one shorter.)

As an intriguing subplot to this, Leafs fans can’t even put all the blame on the shoulders of former head coach Mike Babcock. As per Moretto, you would have lost $387 after Sheldon Keefe took charge, which works out to be 47 percent of the $819.

One of the few consolations for Leafs fans is that the Montreal Canadiens were the worst team to bet on in the NHL, with a loss of $1,828. For what it’s worth — pun not intended — a third Canadian team were in the bottom five, with the Calgary Flames coming in fifth with a loss of $806.

There was some good news for Canadian NHL teams at the other end, as per Moretto’s previous article. The Vancouver Canucks ranked third-best in the league, with a profit of $520.

As a result of this, it only seems fair to also look at the Leafs’ home record minus the betting angle. After all, what really counts to the majority of fans is securing enough points to help in the quest to make the playoffs.

For this, it’s a simple case of working out what percentage of home points on offer were actually picked up. In the case of the Leafs, they earned 43 of a possible 68 points, to give a success rate of 63.235 percent.

On the basis of this, Leafs fans will be happy to know their team actually had the 10th-best home success rate in the league this season at the time play was suspended. The only Canadian team to finish higher than them were the Canucks, who were fifth-best with a success rate of 68.571 percent on home ice.

At the other end of the table, Leafs fans will be delighted to know the Canadians were second-worst, with a success rate of just 45.946 percent. The only NHL team below them were the Detroit Red Wings, with a 35.135 percent success rate at home.

Overall, it’s clear that the Leafs are good where it most counts on home ice at Scotiabank Arena. Just steer clear of putting any money on them.

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What’s your take on the world of professional sports betting? Do you have an interest, or do you place no importance on it whatsoever? Share your thoughts in the comments section below.