Toronto Maple Leafs: Gardiner odd man out in Nylander deal

With William Nylander signed, the probability of Jake Gardiner remaining long-term with the Toronto Maple Leafs look like a long shot.

William Nylander has finally signed a new deal with the Toronto Maple Leafs and all is well in the world again. Except it’s not.

Yes, both the team and the player wanted to continue their relationship long-term. And yes, the Leafs got Nylander to come down from his original reported demand of $8 million per season.

However, even at $6.9 million per year (after this season), the Leafs still arguably paid too much to the 2014 eighth overall draft pick. And, thanks to the salary cap, that’s going to create problems for the team moving forward.

In terms of the Leafs’ current active roster, they will have eight restricted free agents and four unrestricted free agents after this season. (When including buried cap hits, dead cap figures and active non-roster money, the numbers increase to 16 RFAs and nine UFAs.)  Looking at next season, they have 24 players signed, as well as just over $54 million counting against the salary cap.

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This season’s salary cap is $79.5 million. For the purpose of this discussion, let’s project it will increase to $83 million for the 2019-20 campaign.

This would give the Leafs around $29 million to use on re-signing players and bringing in any new acquisitions. Already, you can see the size of the issues facing the team.

And this is before we get to certain players who must be signed at all costs. (No pun intended.) More specifically, you know the Leafs will do everything within their power, to re-sign Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner.

The figures being bandied around for Matthews and Marner vary but — once more for the purpose of this discussion — let’s assume the duo will be signed for a collective yearly average of around $18 million. (And given their respective performances this season along with comparisons to John Tavares‘ and Nylander’s contracts, this figure is arguably on the low side.)

At this point, we are at around just $11 million remaining on the salary cap for next season. With the number of players that will still need to be re-signed and/or brought in, the task facing general manager Kyle Dubas and company becomes even more challenging.

Taking all of this into account, it seems more than likely that this will be Jake Gardiner‘s final season in Toronto. Set to become a UFA at the conclusion of the current campaign, he will understandably be looking for more than his current cap hit of $4.05 million.

Of course, the Leafs would prefer to keep Gardiner around. In fact, as we reported a couple of months ago, the team has been preparing to start contract extension talks with the blue-liner.

However, now that Nylander is re-signed, and with one eye on negotiations with Matthews and Marner, the prospect of keeping Gardiner has become even more unlikely. Especially with TSN‘s Darren Dreger reporting it will take an annual offer in the high $6 million or low $7 million range, to secure his services.

We are all well aware of the 28-year-old’s strengths, including his offensive game and mobility. However, he is also prone to make mistakes, which is a major issue for a defenceman.

Overall though, Gardiner’s pros outweigh his cons. And in an ideal world, the Leafs would be able to re-sign him to a contract extension in the summer.

However, this is not an ideal world. Combine this with how much Gardiner will be demanding for his next deal, and it becomes clear he will be the odd man out, when it comes to the Leafs deciding who they can afford to keep around after this season.

How do you see things playing out for Gardiner? Will he back with the Toronto Maple Leafs next season, or is this his final campaign in Southern Ontario? Share your thoughts in the comments section below.