Toronto Maple Leafs: Who will they Protect in the Expansion Draft?

The Toronto Maple Leafs are in a good spot compared to the rest of the league in terms of the Expansion Draft, but there is still a chance they lose a young player.

There are a lot of things going on in the NHL at the moment, aside from the local fans’ thirst for any news related to the Toronto Maple Leafs. The NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs are knee-deep in the second round. From the results of the NHL Draft Lottery, New Jersey will be drafting first overall.

Also, with the signing of Vadim Shipachyov, talk has circled back to the Vegas Golden Knights. However, one does not simply speak of Vegas without discussing the dreaded Expansion Draft.

I say dreaded with a smirk. Some teams are going to lose a good player like the Anaheim Ducks, whereas other teams are pretty safe. One of the these “safe” teams are the Leafs.

The rules of the Expansion Draft go as follows:

1. A team can choose to either protect seven forwards, three defencemen, and a goalie OR eight skaters (of any position) and a goalie.
2. Teams must expose two forwards that are signed for next season and have played either 40+ games this season or 70+ games for the past two seasons.
3. Teams must expose one defenceman signed for next season that has played either 40+ games this season or 70+ games for the past two seasons.

Seems simple enough right? Now the reason why the Leafs are in a great position for this, is because all first and second year pros are exempt from the Draft. That’s right, Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Mitch Marner, Kasperi Kapanen, Zach Hyman, Frederik Gauthier and Nikita Soshnikov are all safe.

Unfortunately, there could be a bit of a snag here. Using the Expansion Draft Tool on Capfriendly.com, we can get an idea of how the draft will look for the Leafs.

More from Toronto Maple Leafs

• Maple Leafs Rumours: Half of NHL teams interested in Ilya Mikheyev
• Toronto Maple Leafs: How to address the goaltender position
• Leafs reward Timothy Liljegren with extension after breakout season
• Maple Leafs: Jack Campbell situation becoming increasingly uncertain
• Jason Spezza retires, joins Toronto Maple Leafs front office

The 7-3-1 model makes the most sense for them to use. Therefore, Nazem Kadri, Tyler Bozak, James Van Reimsdyk, Leo Komorov, and Connor Brown would be the forwards to protect.

On the backhand would be another no-brainer. Morgan Rielly, Jake Gardnier, and Connor Carrick should be the three. That leaves the goaltender, Freddie Andersen. Objections? Alright, let’s move on.

With these choices, the Leafs have two more forwards to protect. It doesn’t make sense to protect any of the forward UFA’s unless Brian Boyle is resigned.

That would leave Matt Martin, Eric Fehr, Seth Griffith, Kerby Rychel, Josh Leivo, and Brendan Leipsic as candidates for Vegas to select. Now remember, two forwards with certain requirements need to be exposed. Martin and Fehr meet them.

For those worried that Martin may be picked up, his $2.5 million contract may be protection enough. So now everything is fine, and the choice comes down to the remaining three forwards.

Or it was, until this happened:

I’ll give you a moment to remove your palms from your forehead. Although he had a rough season with an impactful hand injury, Ben Smith meets the requirements for exposure.

All signs point to the Leafs protecting Martin. Because of that, another young forward may be left exposed for Vegas to claim. So let’s look more in-depth at the four.

Waiver Man

Griffith spend the majority of this season in the AHL with short appearances in the NHL. He was placed on waivers three times. Once by the Boston Bruins, then the Leafs and the Florida Panthers.

In the total 25 games played between Toronto and Florida, he had 5 points (all assists). When he was re-claimed by the Leafs, he was instantly sent down to the minors.

With the Marlies, Griffith looked like the AHL equivalent of Paul Byron. He was a point-per-game player, finishing with 44 points in 38 games.

Despite the success with the Marlies, I could see Griffith being a player to expose. The loss wouldn’t be that significant considering the fact that he’s an RFA at the end of this season and they got him for free.

Maximum Rychel

The Leafs initially acquired Rychel on Day Two of last year’s NHL Entry Draft in exchange for Scott Harrington and a conditional fifth round pick. It took Rychel a while to get his play up to standard in the AHL.

However once December hit, the former first round pick’s play started to soar including a stretch of 21 points in 20 games. TSN’s Kristen Shilton tweeted a statement made by Rychel:

However, Rychel’s another player I wouldn’t be surprised to see left exposed.

Corrado’s Tag Team Partner

Leivo is where the decisions start to get difficult. Since he since a two-year extension last offseason, the 2011 third round pick would require waivers to be sent down.

Fortunately (kind of), with some injuries, he was kept on the Leafs’ injury reserve. He’s an NHL player with an NHL shot. In the few games he has played with the Leafs in the past few seasons, he has put up some impressive numbers.

Leivo had 10 points in 13 games. Unfortunately, Babcock wanted a penalty killer in the line-up and for that reason other players got the nod before him. His age and scoring touch would make him an ideal choice for Vegas.

Whether the Leafs decide to protect him or not will depend on the market. If they were to make a trade and give up one of their wingers (e.g. JVR), Leivo could be someone to step right into that spot.

The Skilled Pest

Leipsic has been one of if not the best player on the Marlies this season. He missed some time after a concussion sustained in January. However, the 5 foot 9 winger was able to put together 51 points in 49 games.

His play hasn’t only been confined to the AHL. Last year, Leipsic was called up by the Leafs and played a couple of games.

He is an RFA at the end of this season as well, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him resigned and compete for a roster spot. With his success in the AHL, Vegas taking a look at him would make sense as well. Similar to Leivo, it’s a difficult choice.

Next: Examining Nikita Zaitsev's Contract Extension

With a month away from the Expansion Draft, Leafs fans will have to sit and wait to see what happens. However, if this management has taught us anything it’s that we can trust them. Although the team wont lost one of its main contributors, they’ll lose someone. And that person they lose may sting a little for some fans.