Toronto Maple Leafs: Game 4 Wasn’t Pretty, But Still No Reason to Panic

The Game 4 loss to the Washington Capitals should serve as a valuable lesson to the Toronto Maple Leafs, but it should not change the mindset heading into Game 5.

Thinking the Toronto Maple Leafs could finish this series in five games may have been premature. In fact, the Washington Capitals’ victory in Game 4 is enough for some people to flip the script and put the Leafs back as underdogs.

Considering Games 1, 2 and 3 went into overtime and Wednesday night’s game could have ended up that way as well, no one should be confident in saying how this series will end. It is common for the narrative in a seven-game series to flip back and forth, unless you are the Calgary Flames.

Now, it appears as if the momentum lies with the Capitals, but does it really? Is it time for Leafs fans to panic as the series returns to Washington on Friday?

The panic came when the Capitals dominated the Leafs in the first period, which led to some typical reaction on twitter:

Granted these tweets were likely meant to provide humour. However, there were many others sent out, some comparing Wednesday’s game to the Edmonton Oilers’ 7-0 loss to the San Jose Sharks.

I would not say it is time to panic because that was the only time Washington was able to consistently dominate the Leafs for an entire period. It was like when the Capitals played the Leafs before the playoffs started.

James van Riemsdyk pointed out to The Athletic‘s James Mirtle, that the Capitals were winning the battles in the neutral zone.

"“It definitely seemed like we had a little bit of trouble getting through the neutral zone today. We’ll have to obviously take a day to assess all that sort of stuff. I think we can play a little bit faster in terms of getting the puck up [to the offensive zone] quicker. That’s always the key to any game. Play defence less and just get on their D.”"

This is what the Leafs have excelled at in this series, which is to take the pressure off their defence and put it on the Capitals. Auston Matthews‘ line has been the best at that and it has been evident in their possession numbers, which are the best of any line combination in the playoffs.

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It does not help the Leafs that the Capitals shortened their bench and pushed other defencemen like Matt Niskanen to play more, especially when Kevin Shattenkirk was being exposed in the defensive end. This will be the biggest disadvantage the Leafs will have to deal with, that the Capitals will be able to match lines with home ice advantage for the rest of the series.

The Leafs did not have too many problems with that in the first two games of the series, but they will try to take advantage of that going forward. The Capitals were also a desperate team in Game 4 and could not afford to go down 3-1, so the Leafs cannot allow Washington to establish themselves early on Friday night.

Next: The Calm Before Auston Matthews

While it is not a time to panic for the Leafs, Game 5 could provide a better indication of where the series goes from here. One thing we have not seen yet is a goalie steal a game because both have played equally.

Frederik Andersen has a .905 save percentage, while Braden Holtby is .907, both goalies have allowed 14 goals each this series and are seeing similar number of shots against. So if either team wants to run away with the series, goaltending will be the key to doing so.