Toronto Maple Leafs: The Butterfly Effect of the Olympics

As disappointing as it is the NHL isn’t going to the Olympics, it could be even worse for the Toronto Maple Leafs, as the decision may effect their Stanley Cup window.

If you watch a properly made time travel movie, you would hear multiple references to the Butterly Effect. In a nutshell, the Butterfly Effect states that something small which happens in the past, could have an incredible impact in the future. But why is this relevant – this is meant to be about the Toronto Maple Leafs. Stay tuned, I’ll get to that shortly.

The league announced disappointing news that there will be no NHL Participation in the 2018 Winter Olympics. Both the fans and the players are upset about this. Monday saw a few NHL players speak out about the decision:

Gary Bettman thought it would be best to detail their thought process as players continued to speak out. The NHL commissioner brought up the fact that Olympic participation disrupts the season and there’s a risk of their players being injured overseas. However, if those were the main reasons, then why use the Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) as a bargaining piece?

Back in November when the debate on participation was relatively fresh, the league tried to cut a deal with the NHLPA. This deal would go as follows: we’ll let you go to the Olympics, if you agree to extend the CBA.

As it stands now, the CBA is effective until September 15th 2022. However, if the NHL or NHLPA would want to opt out, they would have to do so in September of 2019. This would result in a work stoppage for the 2020-2021 NHL season until a new deal was done.

The players don’t like the current CBA and rejected the offer. This is because of escrow, a percentage of a player’s salary that is taken (15.5 percent to be exact) and usually not returned in full.

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So it would tick off the players that the NHL would use Olympic participation as a means to an extension and that they’re not letting them go. All signs are pointing to the NHLPA opting out. There might be a lockout in 2020.

Back to the Leafs. Most compare this young team to the dark ages of the Chicago Blackhawks. After drafting Johnathan Toews and Patrick Kane, the Blackhawks won their first Stanley Cup in 2010.

That year was Toews’ final year of his entry level contract with the team. If we’re maintaining the same comparison, the Leafs should be a true up contender around the final year of Auston Matthews’ entry level contract. Leafs fans would like this:

To look something like this:

Signed in the summer of 2016, the number one overall’s contract continues until the end of the 2018-2019 season. The Steve Dangle Podcast goes into this further but, a lockout in the 2020-2021 season impacts the Leafs window to a win a cup.

This is the Butterfly Effect. By the league preventing Olympic participation and using the CBA as a weapon, the success of the Leafs will possibly be threatened.

Next: Auston Matthews Continues to Break Records

Perhaps the boys in blue win a cup by then, that would be great right? However, fans have been told constantly from Mike Babcock and Brendan Shanahan that the goal is to dress a team that can win every year. They want this team to be the next Chicago Blackhawks. Unfortunately, this Olympic decision could impact that goal down the line.