Looking at the Leafs Depth Chart with an Objective Eye

Some people have the ability to look at the Toronto Maple Leafs depth chart with a critical and objective eye, but I am probably not one of those people.

The Leafs are now entering into a period of their rebuild where player personnel decisions will only become more and more difficult. Objectivity  is now the operative word.

The Leafs have so many good emerging prospects to choose from already, with more coming into the pipeline from the junior ranks and overseas every season. The internal dynamics of the Leafs’ depth chart are in the process of changing. This is a roster that in a surprisingly short time period will be very difficult to make and stick with.

As the Leafs juggle 24 players around their 23-man NHL roster limit, a great deal has been written about a handful of early season standouts currently playing for the Toronto Marlies. The unfortunate reality of their places on the Leafs depth chart however, entails that the big club will have to trade, or shuffle a few bodies before any of them get a chance to skate regularly in NHL games. This of course is barring a rash of injuries which can befall any NHL team at any time.

If a more permanent solution than the temporary fixes of the CBA’s injured reserve provision are to be used to bring their NHL roster into compliance, demotion to the AHL of any under-performing players could be utilized but it is likely not a realistic option. The recent exposure and loss to the waiver wire of Seth Griffith, who was claimed on waivers by the Leafs just a month prior, demonstrating the risk of attempting to demote waiver eligible players.

The Leafs have just six players skating with them currently who are waiver exempt and could be sent down to the Marlies without the threat of being claimed.

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When looking at the list of waiver exempt players which follows, it doesn’t seem all that promising from the perspective of a Marlies player hoping for a roster position to open up via the demotion of a current Leafs skater.

• Auston Matthews
• William Nylander
• Connor Brown
• Nikita Soshnikov
• Zach Hyman
• Nikita Zaitsev

Presumably it would take a prolonged slump of mediocre play for any of these listed players to be demoted to the Marlies. I’ve left Mitch Marner off of this list because he cannot be sent down to the AHL, other than on a relatively short conditioning stint.

This indicates that the often predicted position the Leafs organization will find themselves in, where a number of players will be forced to “over-ripen” in the minors, will soon be upon us.

The good news to be taken from this reality is that currently there are no players on the Marlies roster whose careers are being hampered by spending more time in the AHL. The inevitable over-ripening phase of the Leafs overall player development blueprint, is nowhere near the acute stage, at least not yet.

Arguably, the list of Marlies who could potentially be making their NHL debuts, or add to their limited number of career NHL appearances within the next season or so, looks something like as follows:

The preceding list is in no particular order other than I have listed forwards before defenders as we can rightfully assume that positional needs will dictate who gets the call. With just a couple of exceptions, no players in this segment of the Leafs depth chart are growing past their “use before dates”, with only Loov, Holl and Leipsic playing on contracts that will expire at season’s end.

Where it seems that by all indications Leipsic’s contract will be renewed, Holl and especially Loov, appear to be at the make it or break it stages of their careers. A couple of other Marlies could be added to the potential call up list over the course of the season in Trevor Moore and Dmytro Timashov – but neither has forced their way upwards on the Leafs depth chart so far.

Where this list of emerging Marlies may look impressive on paper, there is another glaring reality we should all bear in mind.  If we can agree that this season was unusual in the number of players graduating from the AHL to the NHL within the Leafs organization, we are not likely to see this again.

Of this list, they won’t all make it and stick in the NHL.

There can also be a substantial difference between earning an NHL debut, where management brass attempts to determine what they have in a player and sticking as a regular in the NHL. This entire preceding list may in fact skate for a few games in the big leagues if the opportunity presents itself, but how many will become everyday NHL players?

If I were pressed to pick future NHL regulars from this list, it would be very difficult. By all indications it appears as if Kapanen will soon be NHL ready, while Nielsen seems to have all of the tools but I find myself forced to stop here. Chalk it up to lessons learned after years of peering into the Leafs depth chart, I always seem to find myself making predictions based more on bias and favoritism than on reality.

Next: Nothing to Worry About With Auston Matthews

In other words: my success rate over the years leaves a lot to be desired.

When you look at this list of players, whom all seem on the cusp of breaking into the NHL, which of them do you feel is sure to make it?