Toronto Blue Jays: Five Series to Watch Down the Stretch

May 13, 2015; Baltimore, MD, USA; Toronto Blue Jays outfielder Kevin Pillar (11) runs onto the field in the first inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports

Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles, September 28th-30th

At the moment, the Baltimore Orioles (62-62) are 2.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot in the American League. If they find themselves in the same or a similar position come the end of September, then the Jays should prepare themselves for a tough matchup against the Orange Birds at Camden Yards.

May 13, 2015; Baltimore, MD, USA; Toronto Blue Jays manager John Gibbons (center) talks to home plate umpire Tom Hallion (left) after outfielder Kevin Pillar (right) is called out on strikes against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The Orioles won 6-1. Mandatory Credit: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports

Baltimore doesn’t enjoy the same offensive advantages as Toronto, but the two teams have almost identical team ERAs on the season (3.79 for Toronto, 3.83 for Baltimore). This turns into another advantage for the Jays, however, if you only focus on the post-all-star break period: 2.74 for Toronto versus 4.05 for Baltimore.

Unless the Orioles can tame that ERA for their late-season matchup against the Jays, they might want to start thinking about next season, not the post-season.

Toronto currently holds a 7-5 advantage in the season series and has outscored the Orioles 77-68. This suggests a tight series, but one where the Jays are still the favourites to win.

I predict a 2-1 series win for the Jays.

Notes: the Orioles are 37-25 on the season at home, but they’ve struggled over the last two months going 21-26.