Toronto Maple Leafs: Advanced Stat Shows Leafs Got Lucky

Use your ← → (arrows) to browse
Apr 5, 2014; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs fans Tiffany Lew (left) and Brittany Morrison (right) hold up signs for their favourite Leaf players during a game against the Winnipeg Jets at the Air Canada Centre. Winnipeg defeated Toronto 4-2. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

Apr 5, 2014; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs fans Tiffany Lew (left) and Brittany Morrison (right) hold up signs for their favourite Leaf players during a game against the Winnipeg Jets at the Air Canada Centre. Winnipeg defeated Toronto 4-2. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

Toronto Maple Leafs fans won’t enjoy hearing this.

Last season, the Toronto Maple Leafs got lucky.

What?!   You say.

The team that finished 12th in the East was lucky?   Yep, they were lucky last season.

The team that went 2-8 in their last ten games?   I know. Hard to believe. But, yes.

The team that missed the playoffs?! Again?!   Um…

Toronto Maple Leafs Advanced Stat Analysis PDO

May 12, 2013; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; A Toronto Maple Leafs fan dressed up as Darth Vader during the game against the Boston Bruins during game six of the first round of the 2013 Stanley Cup playoffs at the Air Canada Centre. The Maple Leafs beat the Bruins 2-1. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports

Sadly, Toronto Maple Leafs fan, the answer is yes.

PDO is the newest advanced stat hockey nerds drool over when looking for an analytic edge. It’s a simple idea that shows when players have benefited from good luck or suffered the other way.

Essentially, when a player shoots, there are only two outcomes; a save by the goalie (save percentage – SV%) or a goal for the skater (shooting percentage – SH%). If you take a team’s or player’s even-strength SH% and add that to the even-strength SV% in the game, that number should add up to 1.00.

For way more on PDO, try this piece written by the new Leafs hire, Cam Charron. Or this one, again by Charron.

If you check on the advanced stats for the Toronto Maple Leafs, something scarier than Darth Vader in Leafs’ blue pops out – last year, the team experienced good luck.

Let’s examine the horrifying PDO story together.

Use your ← → (arrows) to browse
comments powered by Disqus