Toronto Maple Leafs fans won’t enjoy hearing this.
Last season, the Toronto Maple Leafs got lucky.
What?! You say.
The team that finished 12th in the East was lucky? Yep, they were lucky last season.
The team that went 2-8 in their last ten games? I know. Hard to believe. But, yes.
The team that missed the playoffs?! Again?! Um…
Sadly, Toronto Maple Leafs fan, the answer is yes.
PDO is the newest advanced stat hockey nerds drool over when looking for an analytic edge. It’s a simple idea that shows when players have benefited from good luck or suffered the other way.
Essentially, when a player shoots, there are only two outcomes; a save by the goalie (save percentage – SV%) or a goal for the skater (shooting percentage – SH%). If you take a team’s or player’s even-strength SH% and add that to the even-strength SV% in the game, that number should add up to 1.00.
If you check on the advanced stats for the Toronto Maple Leafs, something scarier than Darth Vader in Leafs’ blue pops out – last year, the team experienced good luck.
Let’s examine the horrifying PDO story together.